[UPDATE] A lot has changed since I posted this video on February 17. Since then, the virus has spread across the U.S. rapidly and the country is locked down. That has had major implications for Carnival.
Carnival is looking to get government aid, but even that is questionable at the moment due to language in the $2 trillion stimulus package.
The reality is that stocks are in a bear market now, and that means volatility isn’t going away anytime soon. In a more recent video, I posted an update on Carnival and the overall stock market. You can click here to check it out: [link to video from today].
When it comes to Carnival, there is a lot of uncertainty around the stock. It’s a major blow to the company to be out of business for this sustained time period. The stock has resumed its downtrend, and until that breaks, I would hold off on buying shares.
It’s extremely difficult to time the bottom. Instead, I’d rather jump in as the stock is showing it is on the rise. We’ll give it some time to let the stock form a tradable trend and pattern for us.
Right now, the only way to buy the stock is for the long-term, and expecting more volatility ahead. The company will bounce back, but it may be a decade before it gets back to its previous $70 per share highs.
You know a topic has reached mass hysteria when Apple TV’s list of top movies is catching on.
It happened just last week.
My wife wanted to have a movie night and watch a new film, Contagion.
Or at least, she thought it was new.
Apple TV was featuring it in its Top Movies category.
The movie actually came out in 2011. It’s about a deadly pandemic from Hong Kong.
Its renewed popularity is a sign of the hysteria we’re in. The 24-hour news cycle is fixated on the coronavirus. Scary headlines are plastered across the web.
And people still can’t get enough. Demand for a 9-year-old film about a superbug is driving it up to the top of watch lists.
This is the kind of reaction that happens when a topic gets to a point of hysteria.
That’s why I wanted to share with you my insight on a stock that was hit hard by the hysteria: Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL).
The cruise line operator is facing major headwinds in China after having to suspend cruise ports in the country. It’s now canceling cruises in other parts of Asia as well.
In my Bank It or Tank It today, I’ll share with you my thoughts on the coronavirus — and whether or not you can expect shares of Carnival to rebound from here.
Check out my latest video and see where I’m pricing Carnival shares over the next 12 months.
As you can see, Carnival has a lot going on.
While the coronavirus impacts sales in the short term, Carnival’s fundamentals have been sound for years — low price-to-earnings ratio, great dividend yield and consistent growth in both revenue and net income.
But its price chart is all over the place. That’s the power of sentiment. Even when a business is doing great, Wall Street can get caught up in headlines.
The stock has been sliding lower for two years straight, and the coronavirus fears are weighing it down even more.
In my Bank It or Tank It, I gave you my 12-month price target, but this isn’t the best way to make money in the stock.
Never Bet on Earnings The Same
Instead, trading the stock’s volatile price moves over the next few months will generate far greater returns than my expected move for the stock.
My favorite way to trade a stock is to buy an option after an earnings announcement.
Some people think we are missing out on the biggest chunk of the returns that come with the one-day pops an earnings announcement can bring.
But, as our Tesla Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) trade from the other week shows, we can still grab tremendous returns in a short time frame.
That trade snagged a 438% return on a quick 43% price move for Tesla — roughly 10 times the stock’s move. This came after shares surged on earnings. But shares just kept climbing, as my system predicted.
My colleague Matt Badiali sat down with me to drill down into the details. He loved the strategy so much, he wanted to hop on camera and tell you all about it.
Check out his presentation on my Quick Hit Profits strategy, which has averaged nearly at least one triple-digit gain a month for three years and running.
Chad Shoop, CMT
Editor, Quick Hit Profits
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This post was originally written February 17, 2020 and updated on April 1, 2020.