The Most Dangerous Unknown for the Stock Market Right Now

“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change … courage to change the things I can … and wisdom to know the difference.”

Every investor should keep a copy of Reinhold Niebuhr’s “Serenity Prayer” in sight these days.

The stock market is beyond our control. We’re missing the key ingredient: reliable information.

Investment skills are based on experience of similar situations. As an investor, you can only be in control if you have reliable information about the likely future.

That’s why we hang on every word of quarterly earnings reports and eagerly await the latest unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP) figures.

They may not be 100% accurate, but they help us tip the balance of “known” and “unknown” in our favor.

Today, every responsible person tells us it’s impossible to predict the economic future.

The balance between the known and the unknown has been turned on its head.

Of course, we know some things for sure.

The problem is that the most important known of all may come to a premature end.

And once you accept that, you can protect your investments by taking a few simple steps … steps that recognize the importance of the unknown.

What Washington Giveth, Washington Taketh Away

The second most important fact in the current U.S. economy is the fiscal stimulus provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act of March 27 this year.

The first most important fact is that it may end.

The CARES Act was the biggest fiscal stimulus ever enacted by Congress. It was equal to 10% of GDP.

Here’s how it was distributed:

Nearly $1.5 trillion was allocated to payments to Main Street Americans in: augmented unemployment insurance, the Paycheck Protection Program and one-off stimulus payments.

That’s a huge amount of money.

You can see it reflected in this incredible jump in the measure of M1 money supply from March onward:

Turn Your Images On

But the CARES Act assumed COVID-19 would be brought under control quickly.

The economy would go into “suspended animation,” temporarily slowing or stopping to preserve its functions for a few months, until the virus dissipated. Then we’d resume normal activity. If businesses didn’t have to close and workers didn’t have to lose their jobs, the reasoning went, then our economy could quickly return to its previous trend … as long as the virus was under control.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t worked out so well:

Turn Your Images On

Fiscal Stimulus Works…

The logic behind the fiscal stimulus in the CARES Act is simple.

When the economy is performing below capacity for some reason, government spending can boost it to full capacity. The economic activity stimulated by government spending will generate taxes to pay for the stimulus over time.

This Keynesian framework dominated U.S. policymaking until the late 1980s. But, the Reagan Revolution brought it to a halt.

Because raising taxes was a no-no, Congress continued to run deficits. But, Washington became increasingly hostile to government spending on everything other than defense. Eventually, even the Democrats under Bill Clinton — the last administration to run a budget surplus — joined the austerity choir.

We can see the result of the anti-Keynesian trend in U.S. recessions.

Until the end of the 1970s, recessions were generally short and sharp — over within about 18 months.

Under the more fiscally conservative Reagan and George H. W. Bush administrations, the recession lengthened out to about two and a half to three years.

With the 2001 recession, the time needed to recover began to lengthen. It took four years to recover all of the jobs lost in that recession.

Recovery after the 2008 financial crisis took seven years:

Turn Your Images On

But Only If It’s Used

The next chart shows why fiscal stimulus matters.

Stimulus after the 2000-01 recession was small but lasted long enough to claw back lost jobs in about four years.

By contrast, after the 2007-09 recession, stimulus ended quickly. Congress refused to approve spending or increase the debt limit.

Eventually, they passed a budget sequester bill, which led to the five years that government fiscal policy actually held GDP growth back.

The result was a slower recovery than following any previous recession:

Turn Your Images On

The far right-hand portion of the chart shows the huge spike in fiscal stimulus from earlier this year … along with projections of the impact on GDP if it is not extended.

And that’s precisely the problem.

With the recent dramatic rise in COVID-19 infections, if stimulus isn’t extended, the economy is almost certain to go even deeper into a recession.

The signals from Washington are all over the place.

Senate Republicans are reluctant to extend or renew stimulus.

The White House tells us the crisis is ending, which makes it hard for them to argue for more stimulus.

House Democrats are submitting stimulus plans they know won’t pass, so they can blame Republicans for the results in the run-up to the November elections.

Meanwhile, American consumers have embraced stimulus with gusto.

The chart below shows the relationship between searches for common personal-consumption items and the level of the S&P 500 Index. You can see that people’s confidence to spend perked up when the stimulus was passed in late March.

Now you could argue that the stock market’s rise is driving consumption expenditure. But given that only a minority of better-off Americans own stocks, it’s a safer bet that stimulus gave consumers the confidence to spend, which helped the stock market:

Turn Your Images On

The Most Unknowable Unknown of All

Bulls like to say the stock market is forward-looking. Stock prices are based on where we’re headed, not where we are.

Normally that’s true. But now, all of us are feeling our way blindly through unfamiliar terrain.

Thousands of companies have retracted their earnings guidance for the rest of this year. Economic forecasters say they can’t predict what’s going to happen next … “It’s up to the virus,” they say.

My take is that investors are discounting the most dangerous unknown of all … whether Washington will continue to stimulate the economy.

If it does, the economy and stock market may avoid a lengthy period of decline. If not, we could see things get a lot worse … and quickly.

I can’t imagine anything worse than having to depend on politicians and bureaucrats in Washington to determine the fate of my stock portfolio.

But here we are. That’s why I’m following my own advice, and you should too:

  • Take regular profits.
  • Hold plenty of cash to grab opportunities at the dip.
  • Load up on stabilizing assets like gold and bonds.

And above all … don’t bet the farm on what Washington may — or may not — do.

Kind regards,

Ted Bauman Signature

Ted Bauman

Editor, The Bauman Letter

Previous Post
Next Post



Greetings! Very helpful advice on this article! It is the little changes that make the biggest changes. Thanks a lot for sharing!


Uxyhmw – natural ed pills Bnylax


priligy generic – tadalafil cheapest price cheap cialis 20mg pills


erectile dysfunction pills reviews – best drug for ed best ed pills non prescription


canadian online pharmacy prednisone – prednisone 24 mg 1250 mg prednisone


provigil dosage – provigil 100 mg provigil 100mg


6000 mg accutane – buy accutane online canadian pharmacy average price of accutane


amoxil – amoxil 500 mg generic name amoxicilin brand name


generic vardenafil canada – vardenafil 20mg online buy vardenafil online europe


ivermectin brand – stromectol price uk ivermectin online pharmacy


online pharmacy 365 pills – generic cialis soft tabs suppliers tadalafil canada drug


buy oral ivermectin – ivermectin 1 cream generic stromectol price usa


accutane in india price – accutane purchase uk accutane cream cost


buy lyrica 150mg – perscription drugs from canada online canadian pharmacy reviews


buy amoxicillin 500 mg – amoxicillin price at walmart buy amoxicilin 500

Dr Gőz Péter ügyvéd

Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to assert that I get in fact enjoyed account your blog posts. Anyway I will be subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently fast.


viagra 25 mg tablet buy online – viagra discount canada sildenafil tablets online australia


online pharmacy usa – generic cialis drugs how to buy cialis online


fda ivermectin – stromectol brand stromectol 3 mg tablet price


prednisone 1 mg daily – prednisone 20mg cost prednisone pack


order modafinil online – modafinil addiction provigil 200mg


azytromycyna – zithromax pills online


furosemide nz – lasix medicine price furosemide cost comparison


buy clomid – where to buy clomid purchase clomid


generic viagra from usa – viagra 150 mg canadian discount pharmacy viagra


purchasing cialis in mexico – cheap generic cialis 5mg cialis pills online india


ivermectin buy nz – ivermectin lotion ivermectin 3mg tablets price


what if viagra doesnt work viagra wholesale ViagraCND100Mg – how much is viagra without insurance


viagra super viagra for sale melbourne – buy generic viagra in usa


viagra for sale onlkne where to buy viagra in bangkok – viagra per nachnahme


online casino real money – site casino online slots


medication for ed – ed pill generic ed pills


brand prednisone prednisone online – purchase prednisone no prescription


prednisone 2.5 mg daily prednisone pills – prednisone for sale without a prescription


prednisone 20mg tab cost – prednisone 60 mg price prednisone 250 mg


where can you buy amoxicillin over the counter amoxil for sale – buy amoxicillin online without prescription


how to get amoxicillin over the counter cheap amoxicillin – where to buy amoxicillin


ivermectin buy nz stromectol tablets – ivermectin 3


50 mg viagra – buy viagra online no rx buying viagra from canada


stromectol price in india stromectol ivermectin for humans – stromectol medication


stromectol order buy stromectol online – ivermectin online


order cialis online australia – Buy cialis now best price on cialis


ivermectin price – ivermectin buy online ivermectin lotion 0.5


ed pills for sale – ed pills cheap best otc ed pills

Thank you for any other informative site. The place else may just I get that type of information written in such a perfect approach? I’ve a venture that I’m just now operating on, and I have been at the glance out for such information.


ventolin price australia – ventolin medication ventolin 100 mcg


misoprostol cytotec buy online – cytotec for iud insertion cytotec canada


generic for doxycycline – how to order doxycycline doxycycline order online


neurontin pills – synthroid 35 levothyroxine 115 mcg


buy generic viagra from canada – viagra for sale no prescription


tadalafil 30 mg – rx cialis canada generic tadalafil paypal


finasteride hair propecia for sale – cheap generic propecia


where to buy vardenafil in canada – buy levitra online vardenafil cheap


order prednisone online canada prednisone generic – no prescription online prednisone


buy propecia canada buy propecia – buy cheap propecia


ivermectin india – ivermectin usa ivermectin 0.2mg


zithromax 500 tablet buy zithromax – zithromax 500mg


prednisone 20 mg tablets – can you purchase prednisone for dogs without a prescription deltasone 20 mg tablet price


where to get prednisone cheap prednisone – prednisone brand name


cheap propecia propecia generic – propecia prescription


order accutane on line no prescription – order accutane online australia accutane best price


where to buy ivermectin pills ivermectin for humans – ivermectin 1mg


can you buy zithromax online zithromax – buy zithromax online fast shipping

furosemide generic

lasix 20 mg price furosemide 20 mg vot Glulp

buy lasix online no prescription

lasix price at walmart furosemide cost without insurance vot Glulp

order lasix online

furosemide cost buy furosemide tablets vot Glulp

furosemide 20 mg tablet

furosemide 20 mg tablet lasix water pill vot Glulp

furosemide 20 mg price

lasix over the counter cvs lasix online no prescription vot Glulp


ivermectin side effects – price of ivermectin tablets buy stromectol

Today, while I was at work, my sister stole my apple
ipad and tested to see if it can survive a twenty five foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad
is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had
to share it with someone!

my web site:

stromectol generic

stromectol medication ivermectin pills

stromectol order online

ivermectin lice ivermectin canada


doxycycline gel in india – doxycycline 100mg tablet brand name buying prednisolone online

how much does ivermectin cost

stromectol tab price ivermectin 18mg


stromectol coronavirus – buy ivermectin usa ivermectin otc


price of ivermectin tablets – stromectol tablet 3 mg ivermectin usa price


what is sildenafil – generic sildenafil names

I think the admin of this web page is really working hard for his website, as
here every information is quality based data.


tadalafil online canadian pharmacy – tadalafil 10 mg viagra vs tadalafil


where to buy accutane in canada – accutane uk prescription where can you get accutane


i need help with my essay – assignment writing services purchase essays online

After I originally left a comment I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox
and from now on every time a comment is added I get four emails with the exact same comment.
Is there a means you are able to remove me from that service?
Appreciate it!

my site:


ivermectin for covid 19 – buy stromectol online ivermectin 3mg for lice


viagra buy in australia – Real cialis for sale generic cialis 20 mg price

ivermectin online cost of ivermectin 1% cream


generic viagra cialis vardenafil cheap – vyvanse canadian pharmacy buying ed pills online


order vardenafil – canadian pharmacy xanax best ed pills non prescription uk


cialis 20mg tablets prices – oralciapll cialis 4 mg


cialis 500 – Cialis us order cialis no prescription


ivermectin 12mg oral – purchase oral ivermectin stromectol uk buy


ivermectin india – stromectol tablet ivermectin 9 mg


online casino games real money – real money online casinos usa real money casino app


pay essay writing – professional paper writers hire essay writer


buy generic viagra professional – Viagra approved sildenafil nz price


ivermectin 3mg tablets for humans – stromectol for people stromectol 3 mg tablet


ivermectin ireland – cost of stromectol medicine ivermectin lotion 0.5


prednisone 1 mg daily – indian prednisone without prescription prednisone price


stromectol liquid stromectol prescription stromectol price in india


can you buy accutane online uk – buy generic accutane accutane australia


where to buy amoxicilin – amoxicillin rash buy amoxicilin 500


stromectol sales – stromectol buy online stromectol price


ivermectin where to buy for humans – stromectol for sale ivermectin pills

kedokteran termurah

I’m curious to find out what blog system you’re utilizing?
I’m experiencing some small security problems with my latest website and I’d
like to find something more secure. Do you have any suggestions?

ventolin cap

plaquenil for crohn’s husband taking plaquenil while conceiving how to switch from plaquenil to methotrexate


humana online pharmacy – canadian pharmacy no prescription mexican pharmacy online


non prescription ed drugs – buy ed pills usa buying ed pills online

lasix tablet cost

furosemide brand name buy furosemide 20 mg online what is lasix used to treat


methylprednisolone medication – medrol 8mg otc medrol 4 mg without a doctor prescription

furosemide buy

prednisone inhaler prednisone buy nz prednisone side effects in women how long does a prednisone shot last


help with writing a research paper – online essay writing i need help with my research paper


canadian discount pharmacy – cephalexin 250mg over the counter cheap viagra canadian pharmacy

120 mg prednisone

is neurontin safe neurontin buy online how to get off neurontin how do you know if gabapentin is working

azithromycin tablet

ebay dapoxetine priligy pills priligy and cialis together how long does it take for priligy to work?


wind creek casino online play – free casino betfair casino online


zithromax 1000mg – purchase zithromax azithromycin 1000mg pill

brand name prednisone

plaquenil toxicity symptoms plaquenil cost in canada plaquenil and diarrhea does it stop what is plaquenil used for in lyme


ivermectin for human – can i buy stromectol online ivermectin online pharmacy


viagra brand name generic drug – brand viagra viagra prescription nz


tadalafil online 40mg – cheap cialis average cost of cialis daily use

levitra india

cialis kamagra [url=]cialis ersatz kaufen [/url] what does cialis do sind 4 Г— 5 mg cialis soviel wie 1 Г— 20 mg

stromectol medication

melatonin and metformin metformin 500 mg tablet online metformin and apple cider vinegar why take metformin


ivermectin malaria – stromectol without prescription online canadian pharmacy with prescription


Hi! United Van Lines is here to help. Your belongings will be in good hands with your local Tucson movers. A moving quote or moving estimate is more involved compared to an instant ballpark quote. Moving quotes require you to provide more information to the moving company and for the mover to view the items in your home that you need to have moved. United understands that customers want to review comparative pricing and moving services before they hire a long distance mover. With that in mind, we strive to provide moving quotes in a timely manner so you can move forward confidently with the decision-making process. Discover the stress-free state to state moving services that so many of our customers have experienced. You won’t be disappointed. Arpin Van Lines is one of the best moving companies in the U.S. From campaign staffer to political big-wig, we think all our customers deserve an uncomplicated, trouble-free moving experience at a great price. With Cheap Movers DC, you can instantly compare rates from the Arlington’s best moving companies and score big discounts on your move, no matter who you are. See just how affordable our rates are when you compare today and save. TWO MEN AND A TRUCKВ® Las Vegas is known for their attention to detail, especially when it comes to senior moves. We understand the stress of downsizing or moving into an assisted living facility, and our professional moving team provides extra care and compassion when moving seniors. In fact, one of our favorite core values is THE GRANDMA RULEВ®, which is to treat everyone the way you would want your Grandma treated. We are a family-based business, and treat our customers as if they are part of our own family. Let TWO MEN AND A TRUCKВ® Las Vegas assist with packing, unpacking, and moving so you can spend time with your loved one during this transition.


new ed drugs – prednisone 60 mg accutane cost online

prednisone 40 mg cost

prescription viagra acheter du viagra en ligne viagra qu’est ce que c’est viagra effet au bout de combien de temps

compra cialis

cialis ohne arztrezept tadalafil citrate cialis apotheke kaufen ohne rezept was passiert wenn frauen cialis nehmen


buy amoxicillin 250mg – best casino slots online wind creek casino online games


order lyrica generic – buy lyrica canada how to get lasix 40 mg without a prescription

plaquenil depression

le viagra viagra en france viagra ou cialis que choisir comment quand prendre viagra


buy clomiphene 50mg online – clomid without prescription cytotec 200mcg us

cialis andorre

ivermectin tapeworm ivermectin 1mg ivermectin for dogs 100 lbs how to get ivermectin in us


order priligy 60mg – priligy 90mg brand order prednisolone 20mg online cheap

albuterol 2 mg tablet

ivermectin cattle injectable stromectol where to buy ivermectin for covid 19 treatment how much ivermectin 1.87 paste to give a dog

cialis dosierung 40 mg

dangers of metformin metformin without a prescription how does metformin cause weight loss how does metformin help with weight loss


synthroid cheap – synthroid 75mcg brand gabapentin over the counter

120 mg prednisone

cialis 100 peut on acheter du cialis sans ordonnance cialis avec ou sans ordonnance comment bien utiliser cialis


order levothyroxine online – cheap sildenafil tablets order cialis online cheap

medicinale cialis

viagra effets indГ©sirables comment acheter viagra viagra pas cher en belgique ou acheter viagra sans ordonnace


order provigil generic – purchase provigil stromectol 3 mg tablet

pillola cialis prezzo

eli lilly cialis cialis 5 mg costo in farmacia italiana cialis e viagra assunti insieme cialis 5 mg per quanto tempo si puo assumere

viagra 20 mg

comprar viagra seguro viagra 100 cialis o viagra cual es mejor que cuesta la viagra


comprar vardenafil – buy vardenafil 20 mg cost xenical


buy hydroxychloroquine generic – plaquenil 200mg price generic valtrex

viagra compresse

viagra soft tabs viagra sans ordonnance 24h france viagra pas chere livraison rapide pourquoi le viagra ne fait pas d’effet

generico del cialis

vente libre viagra acheter du viagra en belgique achat de viagra en suisse comment faire le viagra naturel


order sildalis – order sildalis without prescription order generic glucophage 500mg

fortnite skin generator

Players ccan gift skins, emotes, and battle pass to their associates on the list.

Also visot my page – fortnite skin generator


order ampicillin pills – cost acillin purchase hydroxychloroquine

la mejor viagra

viagra on line buy viagra online no prescription usa how to buy viagra online without prescription how much is cialis

tadalafil research

galderma ivermectin ivermectin usa how much ivermectin for 12lb rabbit what are the other benefits of ivermectin


buy plaquenil 400mg sale – plaquenil price buy hydroxychloroquine online


Moreover, SMMHeart additionaloy has a detailed deschription of each SMM services package deal.

Check oout my web blog :: Bryon

cialis 5 mg generico

kamagra shop video of viagra working buy viagra online in australia what can viagra do


buy sildenafil 50mg for sale – us cialis brand tadalafil 10mg

fastest smm Panel

The social media advertising at all times increases thhe scope oof the customer’ base as nicey as in drive.

Feel fre to visit my webpage: fastest smm Panel


All the funds hace to bee added to the locaion afterr signing up.

My site – Manual

Instagram Smm Panel

Starting inn 2017, SMM haven has successfullpy accomplished greater than 7 million orders for the in-demand SMM services.

my page; Instagram Smm Panel


You can buy SMM panel from our service providers to rrealize
the mentioned improvements.

Visit my page: Mack

cialis lilly prezzo

ivermectin tablet stromectol ireland worming baby goats with ivermectin how much ivermectin paste to give a dog

viagra ricetta

precio cialis generico [url=]cialis 5 mg precio en farmacia espaГ±a [/url] cialis farmacia calle la oca cialis vs viagra cual es mejor


Peoplle frfom aall throughout the globe havce recommended their companies and vouch foor the outcomes they

My web pasge anothersocialpanel

viagra ebay

viagra ingredients alcohol and cialis where to buy viagra in perth what do viagra tablets look like


ivermectin 3 mg dose – stromectol 6mg sale ivermectin over the counter

viagra paypal

medicine viagra generic sildenafil 20 mg where can i buy viagra in stores where can i get a prescription for viagra


Media Misterr is pretty easy about what they provide by method
off your Instagram engagement.

Here is mmy blog – Famezoid


Only 10 years old, Snapchat says an eye-popping 90% of 13- to
24-year-olds in the U.S. use the service.

My webb blog Brady


But we can say that many of the rollouts that Likes Geek completes are ijside tthe time spsn of forty
eight hours.

Look ino my blog: famezoid


Every modern-age online game has its ppersonal unique type of in-game
currency. url


oral prednisone – best male ed pills brand prednisone

cialis for prostate

hydroxychloroquine sulfate plaquenil plaquenil 200 mg tablet plaquenil for treatment of igg4 related disease how does plaquenil help pain in sjogren’s patients

natural cialis

walmart ivermectin price of stromectol squirrel quantities of ivermectin paste where can you buy ivermectin for guinea pigs

cialis in farmacia

cialis testosterone costo cialis 20 mg cialis 5 mg nota 75 dove acquistare cialis originale

ivermectin cost uk

cialis offerta cialis originale 5 mg quanto dura l’effetto del cialis 5 mg quanto costa cialis 10 mg farmacia

cialis entrega rapida

ricetta viagra pastiglie di viagra viagra a san marino senza ricetta farmaco come il viagra

cialis amazon

sildenafil cialis achat cialis livraison 24h cialis 5 mg diario precio cialis ou equivalent

tadalafil goodrx

generic cialis online fast shipping cost tadalafil generic

achat viagra pas cher

cialis sin excitacion comprar cialis online paypal cialis farmacia calle la oca cual es la dosis recomendada de cialis

tadalafil price walmart tadalafil order online no prescription

durata effetto cialis

viagra online cheap can women take cialis how early to take cialis what is viagra tablets used for

cialis at canadian pharmacy

generic tadalafil from uk tadalafil without a doctor prescription


xenical ca – hydroxychloroquine ca plaquenil 400mg sale


cenforce generic – generic diltiazem 180mg acyclovir 400mg tablet

female viagra pill

whats cialis sildenafil revatio effects of viagra in women when does cialis patent expire in australia

generic tadalafil from uk

tadalafil price walmart cialis cost


buy atarax 25mg – motilium 10mg pills purchase crestor


buy tetracycline pills – cyclobenzaprine 15mg canada buy celexa 40mg

tadalafil brands

tadalafil goodrx cost tadalafil generic

quineprox 500

logan viagra cuanto cuesta la viagra viagra 100 mg pfizer precio quien invento la viagra


tizanidine 2mg tablet – prozac price colchicine 0.5mg pill

viagra marcas

viagra in vendita acquisto viagra in farmacia senza ricetta costo viagra 100 mg in farmacia chi ha provato il viagra

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.