The end of the second quarter is approaching — and in just three months, we’ve witnessed a series of unprecedented events that no one would have expected.
Economic data is worse than the Great Depression, yet the market is approaching an all-time high.
COVID-19 has arguably been the biggest black swan event in the past 100 years. As its magnitude became realized and uncertainty loomed, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged.
The VIX indicates the market expectation of the market’s price change over the next 30 days. It’s regarded as a fear gauge and provides implied volatility.
The VIX can be used to determine how much the market is expected to move in a day, in either direction.
As it turns out, reality is often different than expectations, though.
The chart below shows the difference between actual and implied daily movement. A flat line would imply no difference:
(Source: Bloomberg)
As you can see, implied volatility is rarely the same as realized volatility.
This sets up profitable opportunities for investors who realize implied volatility (fear) is typically greater than the reality.
Fear Has Been Good for the Stock Market
On average, implied volatility suggested 0.4% more movement than actually occurred each day. This means that fear is generally higher than it should be.
Since the 600% spike in the VIX during March, the S&P 500 Index has rallied over 40%.
In fact, extreme differences between realized and implied volatility have generally been associated with tremendous buying opportunities.
With the VIX still twice as high as it was before the COVID-19 crash, fear is still evident. This suggests further stock market gains are ahead.
Following the VIX spike during the 2008 market crash, the VIX hovered around twice the pre-crash levels for about three months after the S&P 500 Index bottomed.
By the time the VIX reached pre-crash levels in 2010, the market had increased 79% from the low. During this rally, implied volatility was higher than realized volatility 83% of the time.
Like Mark Twain said: “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
A New Way to Trade Market Volatility
The stock market averages about 8% to 10% per year.
But Michael Carr’s new One Trade strategy made 30 times that much in one day.
Considering you place the same trade on the same ticker symbol every time … it’s easy enough that anyone can do it.
Michael is still putting the finishing touches on everything. But if you’d like to get a first look at his new research before everyone else, click here now to reserve your spot. (It’s free.)
Regards,
Steve Fernandez
Research Analyst, Automatic Fortunes
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incoming followers do it on rt and fav??
ise yarayacagini düsünmüyodum ama girince gerçekten sok oldum ??
Arkadaslar bu siteye dün giris yaptim ama 2 3 saat degil benim takipçilerim 12 saat sonra geldi sanirim herkes farkli??
Ögrendigimiz iyi oldu 🙂
Bu çikan veriler gerçekse ben sokk
Kirgin bir gün yasadim ama suan mutluyum
It is the best time to make some plans for the future and it is time to be happy.
I have read this post and if I could I want to suggest you few interesting things or suggestions.
Maybe you can write next articles referring to this article.
I desire to read more things about it!
Instantly Uploaded I’m here now??
10 dk sonra geldi takipçilerim tesekkür ederim
What if
eger bunlar dogruysa yer yerinden oynar ??
my followers have arrived thank you??
takipçi yagiyooooooooooooooooooo ?? 3100 tane geldi
Seeing my ex is kind of like ??
stalkerler gelin oturup bi konusalim neden ben ??
lan ciddi ciddi çalisiyorr ??
takipçi yagiyooooooooooooooooooo ?? 3100 tane geldi
sok üstüne sok yasiyorum, neler varmis da haberimiz yokmus ??
I didn’t believe it, but it came, I was shocked, it came like 2 3 thousand
is this really real? ??
Let’s give a hug as those who see your profile ????
Friends, the app is really working, I’m in shock right now??
Çok Güzel bir uygulama
bugün de gizli hayranlarimizi ögrendik…
I entered according to the comments and came followers thank you ??
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Hi there just wanted to give you a quick heads up.
The words in your content seem to be running off the screen in Ie.
I’m not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with web
browser compatibility but I thought I’d post
to let you know. The layout look great though! Hope you get the problem resolved soon. Kudos
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It’s hard to find educated people in this particular topic, however, you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks|
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finally technology has advanced and they did it too ??
walk, admin, to God, the sacrifice 1450 came to me too ??
Kirgin bir gün yasadim ama suan mutluyum
Friends, I logged into this site yesterday, but my followers came after 12 hours, not 2 or 3 hours, I guess everyone is different??
ooo who’s who i’m in awe ??
everyone has been a slap but this man sent it halal well??
There is definately a lot to learn about this issue.
I love all the points you made.
I finally saw those who viewed my twitter profile
pomeranian boo satın alma fırsatı
Veriler sanirim gerçek çünki tahmin ettigim çikti
I never thought I would see people who viewed my profile on twitter 🙂
my followers have arrived thank you??
It’s a very good app, I didn’t expect this much ??
stalkers, let’s sit down and talk why me ??
ulan 2 yildir takip ediyosun yaz bari be vicdansizz ????
I didn’t believe it, but it came, I was shocked, it came like 2 3 thousand
Toplam 15 kisi engellemis beni 3 kisi bayadir stalkliyor
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Admin kim bilmiyorum ama tebrikler 3 saat sonra geldi benim takipçim
Very nice application
Stalkerlarimi Görünce çilgina döndüm
inanmiyordum ama gördüm
Stalkerlarimi Görünce çilgina döndüm
suan çildiriyorum gördükçe ????
oooo kimler kimler var hayretler içerisindeyimm??
I hope it works every day without interruption
Very nice application
tam da tahmin ettigim kisileri gördüm, uygulama kesinlikle gerçek ??
I don’t know who the admin is but congrats
I went crazy when I saw my stalkers
I was shocked to see 1-2 people I never expected ??
beni neden stalkliyorsunuz anlamis degilim ama ögrendigim iyi oldu ??
Kirgin bir gün yasadim ama suan mutluyum
I’m really impressed together with your writing abilities and also with the layout to your blog. Is that this a paid theme or did you modify it yourself? Anyway keep up the excellent high quality writing, it is uncommon to look a great weblog like this one today..|
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