Lumber Prices Are Falling, Spelling Trouble for the Economy

Editorial Director’s Note: Hope you all had a wonderful New Year. We’ve officially stepped into 2019, and in the spirit of transitions, I’m excited to announce that you’ll now be able to follow Michael Carr’s expert analysis in our other daily publication, Sovereign Investor Daily. Be sure to continue tuning in there to discover what he sees for the market ahead. — Jessica Cohn-Kleinberg


Recent stock market action indicates either a pullback or the beginning of a bear market. Investors are worried and searching for clues.

Unfortunately, many of the clues point to a bear market.

Those clues include many momentum indicators for stocks. Breadth indicators tell analysts to expect more declines. Financial media reports focus on these indicators.

One story some analysts are missing is the price of lumber. After surging to a new all-time high in May, futures prices fell 48% by the end of the year.

If analysts notice lumber, many blame weakness in commodity markets. A benchmark index, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, fell 13% last year.

It is possible lumber was simply among the worst performers in a bad market.

But lumber should be up. The news was bullish.

Tariffs on Canadian wood pushed prices up in the first half of 2018.

Wildfires and hurricanes destroyed acres of woodlands, crimping supply.

A beetle infestation in British Columbia added to supply concerns.

Bad news pushed prices to new highs. Then prices collapsed.

Tariffs Are Bad News for Markets

Tariffs contributed to the decline.

Suppliers and users knew tariffs were coming. Both rushed to get ahead of the news.

Suppliers rushed lumber to market as users ordered as much as they could before tariffs hit.

In part, the price collapse reflects oversupply that developed because of tariffs. This is one of the reasons the decline in lumber shows 2019 could be difficult for the economy.

Tariffs and the threat of tariffs distort behavior. Both suppliers and consumers react irrationally and unpredictably. Wild price swings are one result of the irrational behavior.

Unpredictable prices drive other patterns of behavior. Some buyers wait for more stable times. This dampens economic output.

Other buyers rush their orders. If too many buyers do this, it results in inflation.

Rushed orders also reduce economic output when inventory levels increase too much. That leads to wasted capital.

The problem is no one knows which behavior will dominate in advance.

In lumber, supplies built up in lumber yards. But consumers are deferring purchases of homes because prices are too high.

The result is pressure on many small businesses that have too much inventory. There is also pressure on small businesses employing craftsmen who would build homes if prices were lower.

In this case, low lumber prices will not be enough to resurrect home building. Builders are wary of price swings in raw materials and must estimate contracts based on higher prices.

Consumers are worried about overpaying after seeing home prices crash a decade ago. They’re now unwilling to buy at current prices.

Unpredictability Is Rising

This is the first stage of what could become a housing crisis.

And lumber is just one commodity that is more volatile than usual.

Threats of tariffs are affecting farmers and businesses associated with grain. This is a large part of the Midwest.

Industrial companies are concerned about tariffs. So are consumers. The result could be a spiral in prices and a decline in the economy.

It’s possible the economy will survive 2019. But that’s only possible if businesses know what to expect.

In the current climate, unpredictability is rising. That points to problems.

For now, expect a bear market unless policies in Washington, D.C., become clearer.

Regards,

Michael Carr, CMT, CFTe

Editor, Peak Velocity Trader

Previous Post
Next Post

Comments

Www.genclikburaya.com

Hеy there! I’ve bеen readіng your blog for a while now and finally got
the courage tto go ahead and give you a shout out from Lubbock Tx!
Just wanted to mention keep up the fantastic work!

MetaboFix Reviews

Link exchange is nothing else but it is simply placing
the other person’s website link on your page at proper place and
other person will also do same for you.

my web blog – MetaboFix Reviews

Claritox Pro Side Effects

Wow! This can be one particular of the most helpful blogs We’ve ever
arrive across on this subject. Actually Excellent. I’m also
an expert in this topic so I can understand your hard work.

my blog Claritox Pro Side Effects

OHO Pro Smartwatch Review

Great post. I used to be checking constantly this blog and
I am inspired! Very useful information specially the remaining phase 🙂 I take care of such info a lot.
I was seeking this particular information for a
very lengthy time. Thank you and best of luck.

Also visit my web-site; OHO Pro Smartwatch Review

FreeIndexer

Hello There. I found your blog the usage of msn. That is an extremely neatly written article.
I will make sure to bookmark it and come back to learn more of
your helpful information. Thanks for the post. I’ll definitely return.

real money casino slots

I take pleasure in, cause I discovered just what I used to
be taking a look for. You have ended my four day long
hunt! God Bless you man. Have a great day. Bye

patimood.net

I would like to use the ability of saying thanks to you for the professional suggestions I have enjoyed going to your site.
I’m looking forward to the actual commencement of my college research and the overall
groundwork would never have been complete without visiting your website.
If I can be of any assistance to others, I’d be delighted to help via what I have
discovered from here.

Here is my blog: patimood.net

콘텐츠정보이용료

Regrettably, for most lenders, credit checks will be a essential part of your loan assessment.

mpc-install.com

Superb blog! Do you have any suggestions for aspiring
writers? I’m planning to start my own blog soon but I’m a little lost
on everything. Would you suggest starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many
choices out there that I’m completely overwhelmed .. Any tips?
Thanks a lot!

Review my web blog … mpc-install.com

stornobrzinol

I don’t unremarkably comment but I gotta admit regards for the post on this amazing one : D.

online wagering

I’ve been browsing online more than 2 hours today, yet I never found any interesting article like
yours. It is pretty worth enough for me. In my view, if all site owners and bloggers made good content as you did, the internet will be much more useful than ever before.

Burst Audio Wireless Earbuds

Good respond in return of this question with genuine
arguments and telling everything on the topic of that.

My page … Burst Audio Wireless Earbuds

http://frun-test.sakura.ne.jp

I wish to show some thanks to the writer for bailing me out of such
a crisis. Just after exploring through the the web and coming across principles which were not beneficial, I thought my life was done.
Being alive without the strategies to the difficulties you have solved as a result of your good
posting is a serious case, and ones that might have adversely damaged my entire
career if I hadn’t noticed your blog. Your own understanding and kindness in taking care of every aspect was
useful. I’m not sure what I would’ve done if I had not come across
such a solution like this. I’m able to now look forward to my future.
Thanks very much for the high quality and effective
guide. I won’t hesitate to refer your blog to any person who
should receive guidelines on this issue.

Also visit my blog – http://frun-test.sakura.ne.jp

bitcoin casino usa

I think this is one of the most vital info for me. And i am glad reading
your article. But should remark on few general things, The website style is perfect, the articles is really great : D.
Good job, cheers

Helio CBD Review

Hey there, You’ve done an incredible job. I’ll definitely digg it and personally recommend to
my friends. I’m sure they will be benefited from this site.

My site :: Helio CBD Review

www5c.biglobe.ne.jp

Good ? I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your website.
I had no trouble navigating through all tabs and related information ended up being truly simple to do to access.

I recently found what I hoped for before you know it in the least.
Reasonably unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for
those who add forums or anything, web site theme .
a tones way for your client to communicate. Nice task.

my webpage – www5c.biglobe.ne.jp

Crypto Advantage App Review

I dugg some of you post as I cogitated they were very beneficial very
useful.

Also visit my homepage – Crypto Advantage App Review

Parafalo mosógép

Really informative and good bodily structure of content material, now that’s user friendly (:.

http://www.fokuszpalyazat.hu/

I love what you guys tend to be up too. This kind of clever work and exposure! Keep up the great works guys I’ve added you guys to blogroll.

Dr Gőz Péter ügyvéd Debrecen

Would love to perpetually get updated great weblog! .

Libido Build

Hi colleagues, pleasant article and pleasant urging commented at this place, I am actually enjoying by these.

My web blog … Libido Build

Botanical Farms CBD Gummies Review

Hi, Neat post. There is a problem with your web site in internet explorer, might check this?
IE nonetheless is the market chief and a good portion of other folks will pass over your magnificent writing because of this
problem.

Stop by my blog … Botanical Farms CBD Gummies Review

Total Keto 365 Side Effects

Hi there exceptional blog! Does running a blog such as this take
a great deal of work? I have very little expertise in coding but I was hoping to start my own blog soon. Anyway,
if you have any suggestions or tips for new blog
owners please share. I understand this is off subject however I simply wanted to ask.
Cheers!

Check out my webpage :: Total Keto 365 Side Effects

http://www.digital-marketing.ipt.pw

Awesome! Its actually awesome paragraph, I have got much clear idea concerning
from this post.

Visit my site – http://www.digital-marketing.ipt.pw

TestonoX Review

I believe that is among the most vital info for me. And i am happy studying your article.
However wanna statement on some normal issues, The site style is wonderful,
the articles is actually great : D. Good task, cheers

Here is my web-site; TestonoX Review

Virgo FX Male Enhancement

Glad to be one of many visitors on this awesome web site :D.

Here is my web-site – Virgo FX Male Enhancement

Keto X3

Wow, this piece of writing is nice, my sister is analyzing these
kinds of things, thus I am going to convey her.

Review my webpage :: Keto X3

www.a913.vip

I like the helpful info you supply on your articles.
I will bookmark your blog and test once more here frequently.
I’m rather sure I’ll be informed plenty of new stuff proper here!
Best of luck for the next!

Review my blog; http://www.a913.vip

http://www.aniene.net/modules.php?name=Your_Account&op=userinfo&username=CarstensenRosaline

Remarkable! Its truly amazing article, I have got much clear idea regarding
from this article.

Here is my web page; http://www.aniene.net/modules.php?name=Your_Account&op=userinfo&username=CarstensenRosaline

concerned hemp

Some really grand work on behalf of the owner of this internet site, perfectly great
content material.

My web page: concerned hemp

hemp farming

Wow, this post is good, my sister is analyzing such
things, thus I am going to inform her.

My site … hemp farming

healthy tips

These are actually wonderful ideas in concerning blogging.
You have touched some pleasant factors here. Any way keep up wrinting.

My homepage healthy tips

blast belly fat

Excellent site you’ve got here.. It?s hard to find excellent writing like yours nowadays.
I truly appreciate individuals like you! Take care!!

Also visit my web site :: blast belly fat

weed indoorshave

Highly descriptive blog, I loved that bit. Will there be a part 2?

Feel free to surf to my web blog – weed indoorshave

blow job tips

Neat blog! Is your theme custom made or did you download it from somewhere?
A design like yours with a few simple adjustements would really
make my blog stand out. Please let me know where you got your design. Thanks a lot

Look into my web-site; blow job tips

atkins nutritionals

Just what I was searching for, thank you for posting.

my blog; atkins nutritionals

sex and orgasm tips

Top-notch post it is actually. My boss has been looking for this content.

My web blog sex and orgasm tips

oil swishing

I was wondering if you ever considered changing the page layout of your blog?

Its very well written; I love what youve got
to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could
connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for
only having one or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

Also visit my blog post … oil swishing

Ellie

Magnificent items from you, man. I have be aware your stuff prior to and you are simply extremely great.
I really like what you’ve acquired here, really like what you are stating
and the way in which during which you say it. You are making it entertaining and you
still take care of to stay it smart. I can’t wait to learn much more from you.

That is actually a wonderful site.

Here is my homepage … Ellie

showhorsegallery.com

Please let me know if you’re looking for a writer for your site.
You have some really good articles and I think I would be a good asset.
If you ever want to take some of the load off, I’d love to write some content for your blog
in exchange for a link back to mine. Please blast me an e-mail
if interested. Cheers!

Feel free to visit my web blog – showhorsegallery.com

slot online joker

I’ll immediately grab your rss as I can’t find your e-mail subscription link or newsletter service. Do you have any? Please let me know so that I could subscribe. Thanks.

psilocybe cubensis spores for sale

59085 593672This really is a nice weblog i must say, usually i don????t post comments on others???? blogs but would like to say that this post really forced me to do so! 925072

Europa-Road Kft

I enjoy meeting useful info, this post has got me even more info! .

blogdemls

963589 570270So, is this just for males, just for girls, or is it for both sexes If it s not, then do women require to do anything different to put on muscle 999702

guy-guy sex games

sex games free online https://cybersexgames.net/

how to develop a phygital marketing strategy

86304 804023You require to join in a contest 1st of the finest blogs on the internet. I most definitely will suggest this web site! 256693

best real money online casino

resorts online casino nj https://casinoonlinek.com/

bingo casino online marc lugtenber

caesar online casino https://onlinecasinoad.com/

sugarhouse online casino

echeck online casino https://conline-casinos-hub.com/

windcreek casino online

pa online casino list https://online2casino.com/

online casino games with real money

online casino no deposit welcome bonus https://casinoonlinet.com/

pay essay writing

what to write an essay on https://anenglishessay.com/

writing an essay online

help with writing an essay https://topessayswriter.com/

someone write my essay

write an essay introduction https://yoursuperessay.com/

write compare and contrast essay

write my essay for me cheap https://checkyouressay.com/

critical thinking movie

critical thinking scenarios https://criticalthinkinginstitute.com/

critical thinking is the practice of evaluating

how to improve critical thinking in nursing https://uncriticalthinking.com/

what is a thesis statement for an essay

essay meaning in spanish https://topvpndeals.net/

romeo and juliet essay

essay by line crossword https://thebestvpnpro.com/

essay for scholarship

argumentative essay rubric https://vpnshroud.com/

3canonical

2assuage

gay emo dating

gay dating sites in nc https://gayfade.com

best gay dating sites

popular gay dating apps for android https://gaysugardaddydatingsites.com

สล็อตวอเลท ไม่มีขั้นต่ำ

546141 671007Dead written articles , appreciate it for entropy. 578357

Phygital Retailing

522132 368182Only a smiling visitant here to share the really like (:, btw excellent style and style . 848670

คาสิโนออนไลน์เว็บตรง

709862 106839Admiring the time and effort you put into your internet site and in depth information you offer. It is great to come across a blog every once in a while that isnt exactly the same out of date rehashed material. Wonderful read! Ive saved your internet site and Im including your RSS feeds to my Google account. 126015

Aid Ukraine

great put up, very informative. I ponder why the other specialists of this sector don’t notice this. You should proceed your writing. I’m sure, you have a great readers’ base already!

good shop dumps

978817 154548An intriguing discussion is worth comment. I believe which you need to write far more on this topic, it might not be a taboo topic but generally people are not enough to speak on such topics. To the next. Cheers 692554

Montediz

[url=http://cheapdrugs.store/#]discount prescription drugs[/url]

Wbmnma

order generic viagra – sildenafil 150mg cheap buy sildenafil 150mg generic

Mbngdj

prednisolone 5mg tablet – buy generic tadalafil 5mg buy cialis 40mg sale

Qmhdtu

purchase augmentin pill – over the counter cialis purchase tadalafil pill

crork

Aw, this was an extremely nice post. Taking the time and actual effort to produce a superb articleÖ but what can I sayÖ I put things off a whole lot and don’t manage to get anything done.

Razrva

bactrim 480mg pill – viagra canada sildenafil 100mg england

Vqalnu

buy generic cephalexin 250mg – buy erythromycin sale order erythromycin

Femclk

buy ampicillin pills – cheap ampicillin buy cialis 40mg pill

Tpxhml

buy generic amoxicillin 1000mg – azithromycin 500mg for sale vardenafil 20mg brand

Nnwhis

ivermectin new zealand – ivermectin 6 mg tablet order levitra 20mg pill

Thmuah

buy cialis canada – tadalafil 40mg sale modafinil without prescription

XVIDEOS

Watch the best Xvideos com videos, free movies,
mobile xvideos, and download for on this tube https://t.me/xvideos_xvideo

Ciaqhq

deltasone for sale – order prednisone 10mg pill isotretinoin order online

Szavos

oral amoxicillin – zithromax for sale online sildenafil 50mg generic

Jglzcl

prednisolone 40mg usa – cheap gabapentin 800mg buy sildenafil online cheap

Ralphshege

rush delivery on cialis generic version of cialis

resume template

Great delivery. Solid arguments. Keep up the great work.

Rvguso

buy glucophage 500mg pill – glucophage 1000mg uk amlodipine 10mg cheap

Ralphshege

cialis 20mg prices cialis pills

Ralphshege

cialis or viagra black cialis 800mg

cell phone hackers online

I reckon something genuinely special in this web site.

zorivare worilon

There is obviously a bunch to identify about this. I assume you made various good points in features also.

Jefferycig

best male enhancement pills medication for ed

Jefferycig

ed medications online drugs for ed

Cnehgy

brand cialis 10mg – buy celebrex online cheap flomax 0.2mg us

Jefferycig

cat antibiotics without pet prescription canadian pharmacy online

Jefferycig

generic for diflucan diflucan 200 mg cost

Kwdkhm

zofran 4mg without prescription – brand zofran order valacyclovir 1000mg generic

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.