Breaking Update: Yesterday, Iran fired missiles at military bases in Iraq where U.S. soldiers and personnel were stationed. Damage is still being assessed, and U.S. President Trump is scheduled to comment this morning. The article and video below were written and recorded before those events. After an immediate spike, the price of crude oil has pared its gains.
Story Highlights
- Oil prices jumped 3% higher after last week’s U.S. drone strike.
- And while it makes sense to prepare for higher prices, it’s the wrong bet today.
- John Ross breaks down his analysis on the short-term price of oil — and how you might play it in the weeks ahead.
Iran vowed to retaliate after last week’s U.S. drone strike killed General Qassem Soleimani. He was the Iranian military’s mover and shaker in its Middle East operations.
That news propelled oil prices 3% higher on Friday.
It’s tempting to expect prices to keep rising because oil supplies might get disrupted.
Sure, it makes sense to prepare for higher prices down the road.
But my analysis shows that it’s the wrong bet for today.
I’m looking for the price to drop as much as 10% — to $56.50 per barrel — in the next six weeks before it’s ready to continue climbing.
This chart of crude oil futures explains why the oil price will hit resistance.
Risky Oil Bulls Are Too Bullish
The black line on the chart above is the price of crude oil.
And the blue line is the bullish positioning of money managers trading it.
Money managers speculate on the price of commodity futures such as crude oil.
These types of traders build up bullish and bearish positions based on how they expect prices to move.
When their positioning becomes lopsided, it unwinds and the underlying price trend reverses.
Crude oil traders are the most bullish they’ve been since April 2019.
That’s a relative extreme, and it could pose a hurdle for the bulls and the price of oil.
Crude oil’s trend has been up since early October. If the bulls lose interest, there will be no new buying to push prices higher.
Traders Shouldn’t Depend on Middle East Conflict
The conflict between the U.S. and Iran could excite bulls.
Iran can control traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for crude oil trade out of the Middle East.
This potential for supply disruption — and others — could spur new buyers and lift the price of oil.
Something similar happened to supply expectations in November 2017.
Traders anticipated that OPEC would extend its agreement to cut oil production — and bullish positions broke out to a new extreme.
As a result, the oil price reached new highs. It continued rallying all the way into the second half of 2018.
It could happen again. Or not…
Crude Oil Price to Rally — but Not Yet
Based on my technical targets, the price of oil could rally between 15% and 36% in the next six months.
But not yet.
Despite conflict in the Middle East, there is no actual supply disruption right now.
Some reports suggest attacks are possible near Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. But it’s mere speculation at this point.
Oil bulls will need more than that.
In September, I told readers to expect $60 as the floor for the price of oil. That was right after a drone strike took 50% of Saudi Arabian crude oil production offline.
That turned out to be a bad call, partly because Saudi Arabia restored the disruption in short order.
Instead of rising, the price of crude oil dropped 16% — to below $52 per barrel — in the weeks that followed.
The price didn’t get back above $60 till December 13.
I’m resisting the temptation to buy oil just because the spotlight is back on conflict in the Middle East.
I’d rather forecast a short-term ceiling on oil prices and look for a new buying opportunity in the weeks ahead.
All you traders out there: Be careful on betting too soon that the price of oil will keep rising.
Good investing,
John Ross
Editor, Apex Profit Alert
P.S. For more on the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, check out my latest video by clicking the play button below!
I visited several web pages however the audio feature for audio songs existing at
this web site is truly marvelous.
After all, what a great site and informative posts, I will upload inbound link – bookmark this web site? Regards, Reader.
Rqqkwn – him ed pills Cmlfah
mens ed pills – best ed treatment pills erectile dysfunction treatments
stromectol buy – ivermectin 0.5% lotion ivermectin generic name
lyrica 25 mg capsule – canadian pharmacy no rx canadian pharmacy cialis 40 mg
buy viagra cheap – best male enhancement pills viagra for women price
furosemide price comparison – average cost of lasix lasix medication prices
generic clomid 25mg – purchase clomid buy clomiphene 100mg
buy viagra online europe – sildenafil 2 viagra online buy india
cialis 100mg tablets – cialis cheap buy tadalafil without prescription
ivermectin 3mg for lice – stromectol for head lice buy stromectol canada
slots real money – real casinos online no deposit slot games
what is erectile dysfunction – ed meds online erectile dysfunction pills
generic prednisone otc – buy prednisone without prescription prednisone 25mg from canada
best price for sildenafil 50 mg – sildenafil online usa price of viagra 50mg in india
where to buy cialis online australia – Approved cialis pharmacy over the counter tadalafil
buy ivermectin uk – buy stromectol uk purchase stromectol online
erectile dysfunction exercises – ed treatments impotence pills
can you buy cytotec over the counter – can i buy cytotec over the counter in south africa how much is cytotec pills in south africa
neurontin 100mg caps – neurontin 400 mg capsule cost of levothyroxine 175 mcg
I was able to find good info from your blog articles.
I loved as much as you will receive carried out right here.
The sketch is attractive, your authored material stylish.
nonetheless, you command get bought an impatience over that you wish be delivering the
following. unwell unquestionably come further formerly again since exactly
the same nearly a lot often inside case you shield this hike.
Undeniably consider that which you said. Your favorite reason seemed to be on the
internet the easiest thing to take into account
of. I say to you, I certainly get irked while people consider worries that they plainly don’t know about.
You managed to hit the nail upon the highest as neatly as
defined out the entire thing without having side effect , other folks could take a signal.
Will probably be again to get more. Thanks
Hello, i think that i noticed you visited my website thus i
came to go back the favor?.I’m trying to to find issues to improve my website!I guess its
adequate to use a few of your ideas!!
Ahaa, its pleasant discussion regarding this article
at this place at this weblog, I have read all that, so
now me also commenting at this place.
Hmm it appears like your blog ate my first comment (it was super long) so
I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog.
I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to everything.
Do you have any tips for newbie blog writers? I’d really appreciate it.
Hi mates, good post and fastidious urging commented here, I am
truly enjoying by these.
What’s up it’s me, I am also visiting this
web site regularly, this web page is actually nice and the users are genuinely sharing nice thoughts.
It is not my first time to visit this website, i am visiting this web
site dailly and obtain good data from here all
the time. asmr https://app.gumroad.com/asmr2021/p/best-asmr-online asmr
What’s up, every time i used to check website posts here in the early
hours in the morning, as i enjoy to gain knowledge of more and more.
cheap flights http://1704milesapart.tumblr.com/ cheap flights
I visit daily a few web pages and information sites
to read articles, however this webpage provides feature based writing.
quest bars http://bitly.com/3C2tkMR quest bars
Hello! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly?
My site looks weird when browsing from my apple
iphone. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to fix this problem.
If you have any recommendations, please share.
Cheers! scoliosis surgery https://0401mm.tumblr.com/ scoliosis surgery
Hi there, I discovered your site by way of Google at the same time as looking for a similar subject,
your website got here up, it appears good. I have bookmarked it
in my google bookmarks.
Hello there, just turned into alert to your weblog via Google, and found that it’s truly informative.
I am gonna be careful for brussels. I’ll appreciate
should you proceed this in future. A lot of other people will probably be benefited out of your writing.
Cheers! scoliosis surgery https://coub.com/stories/962966-scoliosis-surgery scoliosis
surgery
It’s actually a great and useful piece of information. I’m happy that you just shared this helpful information with us.
Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.
quest bars https://www.iherb.com/search?kw=quest%20bars quest bars
order prednisone 10 mg tablet – prednisone 20 mg tablet how to get prednisone
accutane 2.5 mg – accutane online uk accutane price uk
783034 688250Previously you must have highly effective internet business strategies get you started of getting into topics suitable for their web-based organization. educational 64290
Amazing things here. I’m very satisfied to
peer your article. Thank you a lot and I am having a look ahead to contact you.
Will you kindly drop me a mail?
Hey I am so grateful I found your blog page,
I really found you by mistake, while I was researching on Digg for something else, Anyways I am here now and would just like to say kudos for a fantastic post and a all round exciting blog (I also love the theme/design),
I don’t have time to read through it all at the minute but I have bookmarked it and also included your RSS feeds, so
when I have time I will be back to read more, Please do keep up the excellent work.
prednisone for sale online – sterapred prednisone oral
accutane price australia – buy accutane cream pharmacy accutane
buy amoxicilina noscript canada – buy amoxicillin 500 mg online mexico purchase amoxil
ivermectin 3mg tablets for humans – cost of ivermectin lotion stromectol brand
buy ivermectin 6 mg for humans – ivermectin 3mg for humans ivermectine
218856 385900I wanted to say Appreciate providing these details, youre performing an excellent job with the website… 406777
canadian neighbor pharmacy – real canadian pharmacy canadian pharmacy cialis 40 mg
I already guessed
best place to buy ed pills online – erection pills online best ed pills at gnc
buy methylprednisolone 16mg – methylprednisolone 4 mg over counter methylprednisolone 8mg online
cheap thesis binding – academicwriters essay helpers
best canadian online pharmacy – erythromycin 500mg pill canadian pharmacy without prescription
reliable canadian pharmacy – order nolvadex 20mg pill real canadian pharmacy
wind creek casino online games – online gambling casinos online casinos real money
azithromycin 250mg pills – cheap zithromax 500mg cheap zithromax
ivermectin tablet 1mg – price of stromectol ivermectin 12 mg pills
Hi, I think your website might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your blog in Safari, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer,
it has some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!
Other then that, awesome blog!
sildenafil 25 mg online – viagra uk sildenafil 100mg discount
best online sex games summertime https://cybersexgames.net/
cialis 20 mg price in canada – cialis pill tadalafil australia
buy ivermectin cream for humans – stromectol stromectol buy most reliable online pharmacy
herbal ed pills – isotretinoin 20mg accutane 10mg for sale
baccarat online casino https://casinoonlinek.com/
ignition casino online chat https://onlinecasinoad.com/
buy amoxicilin 500 mg from canada – walmart price for amoxicillin doubleu casino online casino
casino stream online https://conline-casinos-hub.com/
pregabalin 75mg sale – cheap furosemide 40mg online lasix 5
gun lake online casino https://onlinecasinos4me.com/
ruby fortune online casino https://online2casino.com/
harrah’s online casino https://casinoonlinet.com/
online casino betting https://casinosonlinex.com/
keto shrimp scampi https://ketogenicdiets.net/
buy clomid 25mg – order ventolin pills order cytotec 200mcg generic
order dapoxetine 30mg pill – prednisolone 5mg usa buy prednisolone 10mg pills
improving essay writing https://yoursuperessay.com/
writing compare and contrast essay https://howtowriteessaytips.com/
dating gay in london https://gayprideusa.com/
adult gay dating site https://gayfade.com/
synthroid 75mcg canada – gabapentin 600mg us order neurontin 600mg online
cost synthroid 150mcg – generic sildenafil 150mg tadalafil pills
critical thinking process steps https://criticalthinkingbasics.com/
logical thinking vs critical thinking https://criticalthinking2020.net/
topics for compare and contrast essay https://choosevpn.net/
essay on leader https://topvpndeals.net/
rhetorical essay https://vpnshroud.com/
provigil medication – modafinil 200mg uk stromectol covid
buy vardenafil at walmart – order vardenafil usa brand orlistat 120mg
buy plaquenil 200mg for sale – buy plaquenil 200mg without prescription valtrex 500mg pill
sildalis without prescription – purchase sildalis online metformin usa
order ampicillin 500mg online – hydroxychloroquine brand buy plaquenil generic
buy plaquenil generic – plaquenil brand order plaquenil 200mg without prescription
cheap viagra generic – cialis 40mg tablet generic cialis 5mg
viagra 100mg generique pas cher – cialis 20mg generique en pharmacie cialis 40mg prix
ivermectin 6 mg for people – the best ed pill ivermectin price uk
buy prednisone 40mg online – top rated online pharmacy order prednisone 10mg
We stumbled over here by a different page and thought I may as well check things
out. I like what I see so now i am following you.
Look forward to looking into your web page again.
cialis cost cost tadalafil generic
generic cialis online fast shipping https://extratadalafill.com/
tadalafil generic generic cialis tadalafil
tadalafil generic https://cialisusdc.com/
buy xenical 120mg online cheap – hydroxychloroquine 200mg usa plaquenil canada
where to order tadalafil tablets side effects of tadalafil
buy cenforce pill – buy diltiazem 180mg online cheap zovirax 800mg cost
atarax 25mg pills – domperidone online order crestor 20mg online cheap
tadalafil cialis tadalafil drug
282201 965749You got a very great website, Gladiolus I discovered it by means of yahoo. 856017
tetracycline over the counter – generic citalopram 40mg celexa pills
cialis without prescription tadalafil side effects
tizanidine online order – buy generic ketorolac colchicine over the counter
generic cialis online fast shipping tadalafil side effects
inderal for sale online – buy plaquenil 200mg pill hydroxychloroquine us
tadalafil daily online cost of cialis
plaquenil uk – hydroxychloroquine us chloroquine price
generic tadalafil from uk cialis without prescription
cost chloroquine 250mg – viagra pills 200mg oral sildenafil 150mg
cialis daily – ivermectin over the counter uk ivermectin for humans for sale
cialis at canadian pharmacy where to buy generic cialis online safely