Big Up Days In The Market Are Actually Bearish

A few weeks ago, I mentioned that financial advisers are very good at telling you what you should have done 30 years ago.

After I shared the way to counter their advice, the stock market crashed.

Now advisers need different clichés. Fortunately for them, they have some ready to go.

In a bear market, advisers are saying things such as: “Focus on time in the market, not market timing.”

Putnam Investments supplements that wisdom with a chart showing how not owning stocks for just a few days means missing out on most of the market’s gains.

In its example, it shows missing stocks’ 10 best days results in half the gains of a buy-and-hold investor.

Missing the 30 best days in the last 15 years results in a loss instead of a gain.

But there’s more to the story.

And fully understanding the risks could help you avoid losing a lot of money.

The Best Days in Stock Market History

Let’s look at the fourth-best day in the history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

That was March 24, when the index gained more than 11%.

It was the eighth time in history that the Dow gained at least 10% in one day. The chart below shows those eight times:

1-Day Gains of 10% or More

The Dow posted its biggest one-day point gain in history last week, and that’s bearish.

Looking at that table, I noticed all those days came in bear markets.

Four occurred in the Great Depression.

Two came in the 2008 bear market.

One came in 1987, just two days after the biggest one-day loss in history.

Of course, it would be nice to enjoy the gains on those days. But it would be nicer to miss the losses that preceded those gains.

Avoiding the Bear Beats Focusing on Time in the Market

Instead of worrying about how to catch 10% gains in a bear market, a more useful question is whether those days marked the end of the bear market.

That’s relatively simple to answer.

I broadened the test to include all days with a gain of at least 9%. That happened 17 times.

The Dow was in a bear market on 13 of those days, or more than three-quarters of the time.

The results show that bear markets don’t end with big up days.

On average, stocks continued lower for about six months after big up days.

The next chart shows the average performance of the Dow over the next year:

The Dow’s Performance 12-Months After a 1-Day Gain of 9% or More

The Dow posted its biggest one-day point gain in history last week, and that’s bearish.

Using history as a guide, we know there’s a high probability the Dow will still be in a bear market 12-months from now.

Your Action to Take

It’s tempting to believe the bear market is over. But that’s unlikely.

Throughout history, large single-day gains never marked the end of the bear market.

Instead of buying now, it’s better to wait for the Dow to move at least 25% above its low.

For now, that means buying when the Dow tops 23,240.


Michael Carr, CMT, CFTe

Editor, Peak Velocity Trader

Previous Post
Next Post



cialis soft tablet: buy cialis cheaper online where can u buy cialis
how to buy cialis online from canada


can buy viagra over counter australia purchase viagra online canada fmelgct – where to buy viagra in ireland


genericn viagra viagra substitute online ViagraCND100Mg – buying viagra online legally


doxycycline hyclate buy doxycycline – buy doxycycline online 270 tabs


ivermectin where to buy ivermectin for humans – ivermectin 3mg


how to buy zithromax online buy zithromax – zithromax coupon


zithromax azithromycin zithromax antibiotic – can you buy zithromax online


zithromax z-pak price without insurance zithromax antibiotic – generic zithromax over the counter


propecia 1mg propecia – propecia uk

cybersecurity financial institutions

308483 127543An interesting discussion is worth comment. I believe which you need to write a lot more on this topic, it may not be a taboo topic but generally individuals are not enough to speak on such topics. Towards the next. Cheers 591708

ivermectin 4000

plaquenil and surgery does plaquenil cause eye pain what is plaquenil toxicity?

prednisone 5mg pack

dapoxetine hydrochloride canada priligy australia can i take dapoxetine 60mg? how to take dapoxetine 30 mg

plaquenil medicine

dapoxetine monograph buy dapoxetine 60 mg in india levitra and dapoxetine time to become active cialis and dapoxetine when to take it

furosemide tab 40mg

neurontin warnings [url=]buy gabapentin no rx [/url] neurontin for tooth nerve pain what is gabapentin used for

generic priligy

demodex treatment ivermectin stromectol over the counter where can i buy topical ivermectin equimax horse wormer ivermectin 1.87% and praziquantel 14.03% paste how much to take tube all sizes

browser sex games

sex games cancun cast

cialis online

albuterol ventolin [url=]online pharmacy ventolin [/url] how often can you use ventolin when does ventolin go generic

viagra ohne rezept

metformin stomach pain metformin 500 mg tabs what do metformin pills look like how long before metformin takes effect

online casino usa accepted

the best online casino

ivermectin uk

viagra vs cialis vs levitra comparison canadian pharmacy levitra levitra 20 mg filmtabletten buy levitra online usa

levitra 10 mg cost

viagra prix achat viagra sans ordonnance acheter viagra en ligne maroc ou acheter du viagra sans ordonnance forum

firekeepers online casino michigan

riversweeps online casino login

ให้เช่าหูฟังแปลภาษา เช่าหูฟังแปลภาษา เช่าหูฟังล่าม ให้บริการหูฟังแปลภาษา

765819 6395Yay google is my king helped me to find this excellent internet web site ! . 314707

rivers online casino real money

online casino slots

online casino credit card

casino stream online

online casino canada real money

online casino with free signup bonus real money usa

viagra generica

ivermectin dosage chart ivermectin 4 ivermectin tablet dosage for dogs how long for ivermectin to stay in horse’s system

quineprox 900

prednisone anxiety relief prednisone online without a prescription why did prednisone clear up my acne how long does prednisone take to work for crohn’s

prednisone 2018

definition viagra acheter viagra sur internet comment trouver du viagra sans ordonnance comment reconnaitre le vrai viagra

essay writing site

writing the college essay

free dating sites for gay men

collarme gay dating site

viagra 50mg prix

metformin for longevity can i buy metformin over the counter in uk does metformin help with weight loss what are the side effects of the drug metformin

critical thinking games

critical thinking company

critical thinking for dummies

three stages of critical thinking

quineprox 200 mg

cialis 2.5 mg acheter cialis sans ordonnance en france cialis generique vente en france ou acheter cialis en ligne

photo essay examples

informational essay

evaluation essay example
njhs essay examples

argumentive essay topics

cialis 30 mg

cialis livraison 24h cialis generique en pharmacie ou acheter du cialis en france quand prendre cialis 20mg

argumentative essay template

argumentative essay transition words

cialis on line sicuro

girl takes viagra cialis soft is there viagra for women what does viagra do to men

how much is cialis

viagra australia online is viagra over the counter in australia? i want to buy cialis online where can i buy kamagra jelly

ivermectin cream cost

plaquenil drug class plaquenil purchase online can i get plaquenil in mexico what will happen if i stop taking plaquenil

viagra sales

prescription viagra generique viagra en france combien coute le viagra en espagne combien coute le viagra generique en pharmacie

buy liquid ivermectin

forum cialis online [url=]cialis on line senza ricetta [/url] differenza tra cialis e cialis professional dove comprare cialis online forum

plaquenil hives

cialis sexshop donde comprar cialis precio cialis 5 mg original cual es mejor viagra o cialis

cialis mg

cialis funziona davvero [url=]cialis generico senza ricetta [/url] cialis 10 mg on line come acquistare cialis in contrassegno

watermelon viagra

pharmacie cialis cialis sans ordonnance forum acheter du cialis en allemagne combien coute du cialis en pharmacie

acheter viagra france

viagra orosolubile forum acquistare viagra data di scadenza del viagra pastiglie come il viagra

cialis originale 5 mg

correo viagra cialis cialis mg cialis super active 40 mg que es mejor cialis o viagra o levitra

buy viagra cheaply

viagra 100mg viagra pagamento in contanti alla consegna viagra naturale in farmacia senza ricetta dove comprare viagra

cialis con receta

liquid cialis australia cialis sex usa cialis 20mg how to use how many mg of cialis should i take?

ivermectin online

viagra marroqui particular vendo viagra barcelona comprar viagra online sin receta que hace la viagra

cheapest plaquenil

farmamica cialis [url=]costo cialis 20 mg [/url] cialis 5 mg costo in farmacia cialis quando generico

viagra how it works

cheapest viagra online cost of cialis australia cialis for daily use review how much is viagra at chemist warehouse

viagra ebay

buy cheapest viagra buy cheap viagra online where to buy viagra melbourne how to use cialis first time

viagra soft tablets

viagra experience is viagra over the counter in australia? cheapest viagra in the world where to buy viagra in australia

vente viagra en ligne

plaquenil skin side effects to plaquenil dosage of plaquenil for covid 19 why is plaquenil taken with milk

viagra discounts

cialis de 5mg cialis 2.5 precio cialis generico en farmacia donde comprar cialis en tienda

Buy Instagram Followers

I Learned My Secret Admirers

Buy Instagram Story Views

how or how


Who I See Who

Buy Facebook Page Likes

I never thought I would see people who viewed my profile on twitter 🙂

Buy Twitter Followers

what to say to ex girlfriend

Buy Twitter Retweets

Got 3000 followers after 4 hours??

cialis 5mg

viagra calabrese farmacia europea viagra dove posso comprare il viagra pillole ginseng come viagra

generico del viagra

viagra versus cialis cialis out og usa buy best time to take cialis daily where do you get viagra from

cialis su amazon

viagra dosage 100mg viagra australia price drop cialis over the counter australia how to get cialis prescription online

generique du viagra

buy cialis online cialis 5mg best price usa long term effects of viagra how long should i take cialis before

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.