17 Million Jobs Lost! Bulls Need to Worry About The Market Now

The stock market just had its best week since October 1974.

But that historic 12% rally came as more than 17 million people filed for unemployment benefits in the past four weeks. That far surpasses the previous record of 2.7 million.

It turns out that 1974 also had a jump in unemployment claims.

As the markets surged that year amid a weakening economy, the Federal Reserve Chairman Arthur Burns told Congress that the situation had “no precedent in history.”

He was right. Both today’s and 1974’s events are unprecedented.

However, there’s useful information in studying unprecedented historical events that share some similar pieces.

So I started analyzing periods when unemployment claims changed quickly. I went back decades … and I found a trend in stock prices.

That trend is important. It gives us a clue as to how stock prices will react in the months ahead…

A Look at Unemployment Over the Last 50 Years

At the bottom of the following chart is an indicator measuring the momentum of changes in new unemployment claims.

Sudden Shifts in Unemployment Since 1970

Initial unemployment claims

The green bars show periods when unemployment claims rose rapidly, while the red bars show when claims quickly decreased.

The next chart shows the S&P 500 Index. Blue bars highlight large changes in momentum of new unemployment claims. At those times, trends are visible in the S&P 500.

How Stocks Reacted to Major Unemployment Shifts

how unemployment is affecting the S&P500

To interpret the chart, it’s important to remember that stock prices look ahead. That means today’s price theoretically reflects future conditions.

The same is true for an overall trend. If the trend is up, traders expect higher earnings six months from now. Downtrends show expectations of lower earnings.

So what does the above chart tell us?

Most of the big changes in unemployment claims were positive signs for the economy.

Six of the seven major changes, counting multiple signals within one year as a single instance, occurred when unemployment claims suddenly dropped.

In each of those six cases, stocks were already in uptrends. And they continued in uptrends.

The one bearish example came in late 2001. Unemployment claims jumped after the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon.

Stock prices were already in a downtrend at that time. This confirms that prices reflect the future. We were in a recession in 2001, and stocks continued to fall for more than a year after the attacks.

That tells me something important about the future of the stock market…

Stocks May Have Rallied … but There Are More Falls to Come

History shows that big changes in new unemployment claims highlight future economic trends.

For now, the overall price trend since the start of the year is down. The extreme jump in new claims supports that. It says the economy changed suddenly.

And it tells us to expect more weakness in the economy — and the stock market. Wednesday’s sudden drop, as investors reacted to plunging retail sales supports that.

Until new claims drop significantly, expect additional declines in the economy and the stock market.


Michael Carr, CMT, CFTe

Editor, Peak Velocity Trader

P.S. On a day when the market fell 600 points, my One Trade strategy delivered a 113% gain by that afternoon. That’s because with One Trade, it doesn’t matter which way the market is going. Up or down, it gives you the opportunity to target gains of 100% or more every single time. If you’d like to be one of the first people to learn how my One Trade strategy works, click here to sign up for my free presentation.

Previous Post
Next Post


storno brzinol

Hello, Neat post. There’s a problem together with your website in internet explorer, could check thisK IE nonetheless is the market chief and a large component of other folks will leave out your wonderful writing due to this problem.

or web hosting

Does your website have a contact page? I’m having
a tough time locating it but, I’d like to shoot you an email.
I’ve got some recommendations for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it expand over time.


Hey There. I found your blog using msn. This is a very well written article.
I’ll be sure to bookmark it and return to read more
of your useful info. Thanks for the post. I’ll certainly comeback.


Heya i’m for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It really useful & it helped me out much.
I hope to give something back and help others like you helped me.

that scoliosis surgery

Hi there! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before but after
looking at a few of the posts I realized it’s new to me.
Nonetheless, I’m definitely pleased I found it and I’ll be bookmarking it
and checking back often!

my asmr

I truly love your site.. Great colors & theme. Did you build this web site yourself?
Please reply back as I’m attempting to create my very own blog and would like to know where you got this from or what the theme is named.
Many thanks!


Good day! I could have sworn I’ve been to this
web site before but after looking at a few of
the posts I realized it’s new to me. Anyhow, I’m definitely pleased I found it
and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back

there asmr

Asking questions are in fact good thing if you are not understanding anything completely, except this paragraph gives good understanding even.

why scoliosis surgery

Hey there! Someone in my Myspace group shared this website with us so I came to give it a look.

I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this
to my followers! Great blog and superb design and style.


Good day! This is my first comment here so I just wanted to give a quick shout out and say
I really enjoy reading your articles. Can you suggest any
other blogs/websites/forums that go over the same topics?
Many thanks! asmr https://app.gumroad.com/asmr2021/p/best-asmr-online asmr

quest bars an

I every time used to read article in news papers but now as I am a user of net therefore from now I am
using net for content, thanks to web. quest bars http://tinyurl.com/49u8p8w7 quest bars


Valuable info. Lucky me I found your web site unintentionally, and I am shocked why this accident did not took place earlier!
I bookmarked it. scoliosis surgery https://0401mm.tumblr.com/ scoliosis


Greetings from Idaho! I’m bored at work so I decided to browse your blog on my iphone during lunch
break. I love the information you provide here and can’t wait to take
a look when I get home. I’m surprised at how fast your blog loaded on my cell phone ..

I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyhow, very good blog!

scoliosis surgery https://coub.com/stories/962966-scoliosis-surgery scoliosis surgery


Spot on with this write-up, I seriously feel this amazing site needs a great deal more attention. I’ll probably be returning to see more, thanks
for the info! cheap flights http://1704milesapart.tumblr.com/ cheap flights


Hello, I check your blog daily. Your writing style is witty, keep doing what
you’re doing! quest bars https://www.iherb.com/search?kw=quest%20bars quest bars

on ps4 games

Have you ever thought about adding a little bit more than just
your articles? I mean, what you say is valuable and everything.
However think about if you added some great pictures or videos
to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content
is excellent but with pics and videos, this site could undeniably
be one of the very best in its field. Amazing blog!


Quality articles or reviews is the crucial to interest the people
to visit the web page, that’s what this web site is providing.


Keep on working, great job!


I blog often and I truly thank you for your information. Your
article has truly peaked my interest. I will bookmark your blog and keep checking
for new details about once a week. I opted in for your Feed as well.
ps4 https://tinyurl.com/45xtc52b ps4

our ps4 games

I’m impressed, I must say. Rarely do I encounter a blog that’s equally educative and
engaging, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head.
The issue is something which not enough people are speaking intelligently about.
I am very happy that I came across this during my hunt for something
concerning this.

Noel Yeagley

I will immediately snatch your rss feed as I can not in finding your e-mail subscription hyperlink or newsletter service. Do you’ve any? Please allow me know so that I could subscribe. Thanks.|

asmr with

Wow, this article is fastidious, my younger sister is analyzing these things, therefore
I am going to inform her.

Corona Erfahrung

179157 225491But wanna comment on couple of common points, The web site style is perfect, the content material is really excellent : D. 502425

Tempie Klingaman

I’m not that much of a online reader to be honest but your blogs really nice, keep it up! I’ll go ahead and bookmark your website to come back later on. Many thanks|

Broderick Zehner

I love looking through an article that can make people think. Also, many thanks for allowing for me to comment!|

Kaley Chun

Thanks for one’s marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed reading it, you happen to be a great author. I will make sure to bookmark your blog and will often come back later on. I want to encourage you continue your great work, have a nice day!|

Alverta Snoderly

An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a friend who has been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact ordered me lunch simply because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending the time to talk about this topic here on your site.|

Otto Warila

Hi there, There’s no doubt that your website could be having browser compatibility issues. When I take a look at your site in Safari, it looks fine however when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping issues. I simply wanted to provide you with a quick heads up! Apart from that, excellent website!|

Latesha Thyne

Incredible! This blog looks just like my old one! It’s on a completely different subject but it has pretty much the same page layout and design. Excellent choice of colors!|

Gretta Bobeck

I know this web page offers quality based content and additional data, is there any other web page which provides these kinds of information in quality?|

Brad Lorenzano

Its like you learn my mind! You appear to grasp so much approximately this, such as you wrote the book in it or something. I feel that you simply can do with some to power the message home a little bit, but instead of that, that is excellent blog. A fantastic read. I’ll definitely be back.|

Millie Achane

Heya i’m for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It truly helpful & it helped me out a lot. I am hoping to provide one thing again and help others like you helped me.|

Kristofer Bia

Do you have a spam problem on this website; I also am a blogger, and I was wondering your situation; many of us have created some nice procedures and we are looking to trade methods with others, why not shoot me an email if interested.|

Graham Denburger

Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on blogs I stumbleupon every day. It will always be useful to read through content from other authors and use a little something from their websites. |

Elida Goicoechea

I’ve been browsing online more than three hours as of late, but I by no means found any fascinating article like yours. It’s pretty worth enough for me. In my view, if all site owners and bloggers made excellent content as you did, the web shall be a lot more helpful than ever before.|

Walton Shibahara

Hi there colleagues, how is all, and what you desire to say concerning this paragraph, in my view its actually remarkable in favor of me.|

Solomon Peel

Greetings from Idaho! I’m bored to tears at work so I decided to check out your blog on my iphone during lunch break. I love the info you present here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m amazed at how fast your blog loaded on my cell phone .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, good blog!|

Zoraida Gorneault

I think the admin of this web site is truly working hard for his web page, because here every data is quality based stuff.|

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.